Thank you all for helping us reach our goal of 1,000 donors. The ultimate success or failure of the indirect negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis on the one hand, and the Riyadh Agreement on the other, will be critical for the future of the war in Yemen in 2020. The unrest is expected to worsen leading up to the May 2020 election as ethnic and religious conflict takes center stage. Conflict can be defined as a clash or disagreement often violent between opposing groups or individuals. In October 2019, Oromia Media Network (OMN) owner Jawar Mohammed accused the government of attempting to assassinate him after his security guards were removed during the middle of the night. The former Minister of Economy said that Lebanon needs a financial bailout of between $20 and $25 billion. With the ever-present threat of another militant attack looming over J&K, and the Indian government’s stance on Pakistan as a militant safe haven (BBC, 1 May 2019), 2020 is expected to be a perilous year for the future of India-Pakistan relations. They are now promising to get back to work, but neither party is entirely satisfied after negotiations. Outlook for 2020: In late 2020 or early 2021, Somalia hopes to hold its first direct parliamentary and … Protestant loyalists, meanwhile, fear the potential of a united Ireland. Somalia’s security partners in the fight against Al Shabaab made major efforts to degrade the group throughout the year. Please note: exported data will contain additional columns including a timestamp column which indicates when the data were last updated. Recent fighting ended a 30-year long truce. More than half the peace lines that exist today were built after the peace agreement. He implied that future acts of retaliation against the US would be carried out by these so-called ‘resistance groups’ (Independent, 12 January 2020). According to the latest statistics from the FBI, violent hate crimes hit a 16-year high in 2018 (Al Jazeera, 13 November 2019), while that same year a database tracking violence perpetrated by law enforcement agencies reported that “police brutality in America is getting worse” (The Appeal, 17 April 2018). While religious-based conflict may not be the core reason for the conflicts there in every instance, it surely is, at the very least, a basic influence and a major underpinning. If a direct conflict exists between the time that a final summative assessment must be completed and a student’s religious commitment, the student must contact the Registrar’s Office (exams@engineering.utoronto.ca) by November 20, 2020. Failure to defeat increasingly sophisticated attacks on targets inside Mogadishu suggests that Somali military forces are not ready for an AMISOM withdrawal. Related: What the UK's new power deal means in the DUP's Belfast heartland. To explore an interactive visualization of this special report, click here. This move appears to have done little to quell the protests. Mexico is facing a deteriorating security situation and continues to experience unprecedented levels of criminal and… ACLED is the highest quality and most widely used real-time data and analysis source on political violence and protest around the world. Terrorism and Counterterrorism. In late 2018, five Bengali Hindus were reportedly killed by militants in Assam. 2020 was the deadliest year since the crisis started in 2012, when Islamist militants overran northern Mali, plunging the region into protracted instability. Nevertheless, as long as the different Yemeni sides to the war do not come to an agreement between themselves, physical violence will continue. News . Indirect negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Oman, prisoner exchanges, and the reopening of Sana’a international airport for humanitarian and medical purposes represent renewed attempts to break the cycle of violence after the UN-backed Stockholm Agreement, which led to a significant drop in violence in Hodeidah. Related: Journalist's death stirs difficult memories of Bloody Sunday. ACLED records frequent protest events throughout the year, many in support or opposition to the Prime Minister’s reformist agendas. Despite the BJP’s increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha post-2014, the opposition majority has hindered the BJP’s ability to pass controversial bills (Money Control, 1 January 2020). The upsurge in Taliban violence can be partially attributed to the group’s operations targeting voters, election workers, and campaigners around the September presidential election. Pakistan has recently adhered to a policy of vocal opposition to India. Lastly, Egypt’s opposition to Ethiopia’s building of a hydropower dam on the Nile has threatened conflict for many years. 07-16-2020. The first of these conflicts pits the Houthis — a Zaydi revivalist movement hailing from Yemen’s northern highlands that seized the capital Sana’a in 2014 — against the internationally recognised government, led by President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. On the one hand, US and Afghan forces ramped up their ground and aerial operations: the number of aerial strikes conducted in 2019 rose by approximately 20% compared to 2018, leading to one third more reported civilian fatalities. The widespread conflicts and internal division have made Ethiopia prone to intense, sporadic violence. For systems that use semi-colon separated values by default, you may wish to use the “compatibility mode” option. A US-Taliban accord is expected to pave the way for intra-Afghan talks to establish power-sharing arrangements and a permanent ceasefire. She said it was a difficult environment. The Afghan government will need to provide robust reintegration programs in order to reduce this risk. This was a major factor in the Biafran secession and the resulting civil war. It is expected that, in 2020, brutal everyday violence will continue unabated, and homicide rates will break records once again. He, too, has a peace wall running through his back garden, which separates his street from Short Strand. The conference brought together high-profile experts, international organizations, business leaders, government officials and academics for a conversation on the challenges faced by cities, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Researcher Matthias Basedau says weak African states are a major cause. The number of demonstration events is also notably high in the northern Akkar governorate, where protests are typically less common than in other regions. Print the Page. At a press conference following the missile strikes on the Iraqi bases, the Commander of the IRGC aerospace division stood in front of the flags of six Iranian-backed armed groups: Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units, Palestinian Hamas, Yemeni Ansar Allah, and the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun brigades, both active in Syria. Voter turnout was low: with approximately a million initial votes purged due to irregularities, only 1.8 million ballots were counted, representing less than 20% of registered voters and 12% of the total voting age population (Afghanistan Analysts, 22 December 2019). A USIP Fact Sheet Tuesday, August 4, 2020 Publication Type: Fact Sheet. Despite intermittent clashes, the protest movement remained remarkably peaceful until late January. Should the disease spread to an active conflict zone or a major city, the humanitarian crisis will be even more severe. ACLED records the highest number of violent events involving the Taliban in the provinces of Helmand, Ghazni, and Kandahar, which also accounted for more than 25% of the total number of reported fatalities in 2019. The torrent of troubling news swelled in the early days of 2020, as tensions with Iran flared after the United States killed Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in an airstrike in Baghdad. “Of the thirty conflicts in this year’s survey, only two were judged as having a low likelihood of occurring in 2020.” Experts continue to rank threats to the U.S. homeland as top concerns. Somalia: High risk of Al Shabaab adapting to dominate and isolate a weak government. Belgium seeks to ease virus rules on religious services. Though peaceful protests account for the overwhelming majority of these events, ACLED data show that nearly 5% of non-violent demonstrations were met with intervention or excessive force, with this figure rising to more than 9% for protests involving Native Americans, nearly 10% for those involving minority religions, and more than 11% for those involving supporters of the Democratic Party. The likelihood of a successful outcome of the negotiations – which were resumed after Trump paid a surprise Thanksgiving visit to US troops in Afghanistan – is high. Intolerance is the main cause of religious riots and conflicts not only in Nigeria but around the world. Protests by his supporters, mostly Oromo youth “Qerroo,” turned violent and resulted in at least 67 fatalities. They’re talking about bringing these walls down, but that’s definitely not going to happen.". The Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) also remained active in Afghanistan in 2019, launching dozens of attacks on government and civilian targets. Everyone in Belfast marks their Irish or British identity. Andrew Forsyth, a 31-year-old chef, has spent his whole life in Protestant, working-class areas of east Belfast and has lived in Cluan Place for eight years. ACLED records a significant increase in violent events across the LoC between Indian and Pakistani security forces in 2019 compared to previous years: 582 cross-border shelling and firing events were reported in 2019, compared to 349 in 2018. Additionally, the continuing alienation of India’s Kashmiri Muslims from the mainstream could potentially contribute towards increased support for militancy, as well as violence between Muslim and Hindu communities in the region. More broadly, there are heightened risks of clashes between protesters and counter-protesters going into an increasingly polarized 2020 election environment. To determine which of the two file types to use, you should consider whether the data are being used to analyze patterns over time, types of violence, conflict between groups, or locations (which the default file type is best for), or to analyze actor types or specific actors. Five years into the conflict, the scale of destruction in Yemen has reached unprecedented levels: more than 100,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of the violence, including over 12,000 civilians killed in targeted attacks. Ethiopia’s struggles with ethnic federalism are not over. Internally, rising agitation against a controversial legislative measure sparked violence as the bill was eventually ratified as the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA). She has degrees in Statistics and Political Science from the University of Chicago, and in War Studies from King’s College London. These two parties continually butt heads over how they view the legacy of the "troubles" and the way Northern Ireland should run. It seems likely that Prime Minister Modi’s current tactics will unravel across India’s vast political landscape. The central government is weak and … All data for the selected event type(s) will be exported. Wars and Conflict. In response to the inquiry, the President has ratcheted up his vitriolic rhetoric, which may further fuel political violence (NPR, 5 October 2019; Reuters, 18 December 2019). Religious conflict in global rise - report Research finds significant rises in legal and social pressure on faiths, with only the Americas bucking the trend By Reuters 14 January 2014 • 18:50 pm Cybersecurity. Her research interests include foreign policy analysis, political psychology, security studies, and the international politics of the Middle East. According to ACLED data, Al Shabaab is responsible for 44% of reported fatalities that occur during events in which civilians are directly targeted in Somalia. Mexico: High risk of cartel ‘criminal market’ developing into insurgency. Unbowed, unbroken,” on the peace wall directly beside his home. It can also be said to be an incompatibility, as of two things that cannot be simultaneously fulfilled. Al Shabaab has also demonstrated its continued ability to launch sophisticated attacks on well-guarded targets, such as in a recent cross-border attack on the Manda Bay airfield in Kenya that resulted in the death of an American service member and two defense contractors (AFRICOM, 5 January 2020). In Burkina Faso, the fight between militants and Koglweogo — including Mossi, Foulse, Gourmantché, and others depending on the region — is central to the current conflict, which is continuously mutating and fast becoming more brutal. Amid Iraq’s Turmoil, Tal Afar Builds Peace. The current Arab-Israeli conflict had its origins in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. However, Iran could aim to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or launch cyber attacks. The perceived disconnect between personal religious beliefs and mainstream culture peaks among white evangelical Protestants, 66% of whom say there is at least some conflict between their own religious beliefs and the prevailing culture – including three-in-ten who feel “a great deal” of conflict. United States: Developed, democratic political system at risk of turning violent. Violence between Indian security forces and Kashmiri locals could intensify in the coming year if the government neglects to take definitive action to curb human rights violations by security forces. The creation of political space and the return of armed resistance groups and activists with ethno-regional interests has exposed a weak central security apparatus in Ethiopia, demonstrated by the immediate rise and geographical spread of conflict between ethnic groups. In east Belfast, Forsyth, the chef, said there is concern within both communities. Organizations have been working fiercely in Northern Ireland to bring the two communities together. The Current Situation in Iraq. If they [Protestants]  believe they’re going to be sold out, that they’re going to get a united Ireland ... it’s all this kind of stuff that’s being filtered into people, and there are a lot of young people who will fall for that and may get involved with loyalism,” he said. The central government is weak and the nation’s politics are becoming more and more volatile. The growing threat posed by Islamist militant groups has attracted a number of foreign powers, with intersecting deployments of French, American, African, and EU troops all present in the region — adding to an already complex security situation. All rights reserved. Major wars (10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or past year) The 2 conflicts in the following list have caused at least 10,000 direct, violent deaths per year in battles between identified groups, in a current or past calendar year. These dynamic arrangements are actively reconfiguring the political geography of states at a time when ideologies and alliances are in flux across the Sahel. “The delayed progress has been because of the [government] departments and the system rather than residents,” he said. Western Sahara War (1975-1991; 2020-Present)-Long-simmering conflict between the Polisario Front of Western Sahara and the Moroccan governement over control of the Western Sahara terrritory. 9. Since mid-October 2019, Lebanese citizens across all sectors and demographics have taken to the street to express a variety of grievances with the government. Protesters are demanding an end to corruption, the replacement of the government with independent experts, and an end to the sectarian political system. Hassan Diab considers himself a technocrat and has promised to form a government of independent experts by the end of January. To download real-time and historical data for specific event types, select the relevant event types from that category and leave all other categories as they are. Please be aware that ACLED covers over 100 countries, but the period of active coverage differs by region and country. Large factions of the Oromo community that were key to ousting the old government accuse the Prime Minister of forgetting the many lives that were lost during the protest movements that ultimately put him in power (BBC, 23 October 2019). The widespread conflicts and internal division have made Ethiopia prone to intense, sporadic violence. The splinter groups are competing violently over the existing drug trade infrastructure, but are also constantly evolving and diversifying criminal activities by engaging in kidnapping, extortion, fuel theft, and human trafficking. ACLED also records 16 events involving excessive force by police, more than half of which target racial and ethnic minorities. He holds a Master's degree in International Security at Sciences Po and BA degrees in Political Science and in Oriental Studies from the University of Vienna. During that period a number of Jews from Russia and Eastern Europe began arriving in Palestine. Ameneh Mehvar is the Middle East Research Manager at ACLED. Refworld contains a vast collection of reports relating to situations in countries of origin, policy documents and positions, and documents relating to international and national legal frameworks. INTRODUCTION. George Thomas. She is also Senior Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex. Further strain on the immigration system could in turn translate to increased domestic tensions in the US, amplifying the risks faced by vulnerable migrant and Latinx communities. The northeastern region, which is home to a culturally and ethnically diverse population, remains somewhat excluded from the national mainstream and has a history of insurgent and secessionist activity. While this was Abiy’s attempt at appealing toward a more unified national identity outside of his support base in Addis Ababa, opposition “federalists” largely supported by Ethiopia’s large rural populations feel that the merger forms the “structural foundation for a unitary state that will rob them off their [cultural] dignity and autonomy” (Al Jazeera, 5 December 2019). As negotiations between the Taliban and the US continued, warring parties strived to gain leverage at the table by showing strength on the battlefield. Besides inter- and intra-organizational tensions, there is an increasing diversification in violent street crime affecting Mexican civilians on a daily basis, posing a major challenge to public safety and security. The two countries are now engaged in their most serious confrontation in recent decades, though in the meantime both sides have signalled restraint (Los Angeles Times, 8 January 2020). Leaders of the Wolayta ethnic group are making a similar bid. Religious teachers and authors, especially some conservative Christians, often draw on these kinds of current events as examples of how various predictions and descriptions in … Please find a methodology note explaining ACLED timestamps here. There are a number of questions remaining about how the military conflict between the US and Iran will unfold. Authors: Asfandiyar Khan and Areeja Syed Palestine is a disputed territory between Palestine and Israel. She is fluent in English, Farsi, and basic French. Fractures in Ethiopian society are deep, with some differences dating back to the Amhara-controlled imperial regimes. In 2019, the world witnessed a drastic increase in violent disorder that assumed many forms: protests from Lebanon to Hong Kong and Iraq to Chile; geopolitical competition in Yemen and Syria; dominant insurgencies in Somalia and Afghanistan; a cartel-insurgency in Mexico; and a diffuse, adaptable militant threat across the Sahel. Since July 2019, Iran has gradually rolled back its commitments under the nuclear deal, announcing after Soleimani’s death that it will no longer observe any of the JCPOA limitations (BBC, 5 January 2020). Meanwhile, the outcome of the Rajya Sabha elections will be important in determining the extent of the BJP’s influence in parliament. With fewer than 300 days until the vote, the US faces a real threat of serious political disorder. The more stable the community is, the more difficult it is for them to operate,” he said, adding that these groups also exist in loyalist communities. Houthi forces, Hadi loyalists and pro-STC forces are targeted sporadically mainly through IED and suicide attacks in Aden, Abyan, and Marib governorates. A study by a German academic says religious conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa have been on the rise for decades. Find coverage on the latest global news stories, photos, and videos with various religious beliefs in mind on NBCNews.com. Last year, ACLED assessed that the Sahel was “most likely to be the geopolitical dilemma of 2019.” The Sahel now hosts more multiple, moving threats than it did in 2018: Nigeria’s Boko Haram has become a regional threat; Cameroon’s north is beset by cross-border violence; Chad is beginning to experience insurgency attempts in several uncoordinated spaces; Niger’s Tillaberi region – once able to stay the pressure from its borders – is now within the sights of an IS affiliate (Al Jazeera, 22 September 2019); and Burkina Faso is engulfed in conflict across all regions, as groups from Mali continue their southern encroachment. Her research focus include violent non-state actors, conflict mapping, and US foreign policy. Growing instability going into 2020 necessitates a reevaluation of policies by the Indian government in order to tackle the proliferation of discontent and conflict across the country.

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